The two nations have generally warm relations, but back opposing sides in Syria’s brutal and decade-long civil war. Thousands of Turkish troops are currently deployed to the Idlib province – home to three million people, including 1.5 million opponents of the Syrian government and 100,000 jihadists and rebels – in order to stem the advance of Russian forces. But Turkey is weakened by a lack of air support, with the opposition’s airstrikes killing over 300 people in the past three months and destroying schools, hospitals, and homes.

In response, Turkey has turned to the United States for help, asking it to supply Patriot missiles for defensive purposes. The country has also requested that NATO, of which it is a member, enforce a no-fly zone. But the US has refused to hand over the missiles until Turkey gives up use of its Russian S400 missile system. And NATO has declined engaging militarily in Syria, fearing that escalating the conflict could bring them to a head with Russia. Though the US has approximately 500 troops in the region, their mission is to prevent the reformation of the Islamic State and guard Syrian oil fields.

“The attack against Turkey is an attack against NATO”, Omer Celik, the spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, said on the CNN Turk news channel soon after the airstrike that killed troops. “NATO should have been with Turkey, not starting today but from before these events. We are expecting concrete actions on the safe zone and no-fly zone.”

Last week, Turkey and Russia agreed to a cease-fire, though it is unlikely to end the conflict. “We do not always agree with our Turkish partners in our assessments of what is happening in Syria, but each time at critical moments, relying on the achieved high level of bilateral relations, we have thus far managed to find common ground on the disputed issues that have arisen, and come to acceptable solutions”, said Russian President Vladimir Putin whilst standing alongside Erdogan. “That’s what happened this time too.”

Increased conflict in the region, as well as Turkey and Europe’s inability to come to the drawing board, has resulted in irrefutable damages. Turkey is no longer willing to take in more refugees, hold, or prevent them from fleeing into Europe, abandoning the deal Ankara struck with the EU in 2016, in which the former was offered billions of euros to block migration into the bloc.

Displaced Syrians have nowhere to go, and anti-refugee sentiment is also on the rise as the economy continues to stagnate. After recently making good on his threats to “open the gates”, Erdogan glibly called on Greece to do the same.

“You should also open the gates and take a weight off your mind”, Erdogan said at a televised event. “After the latest developments in Idlib, Syria, we’ve given the refugees the opportunity to go where they’d like.”

Europe is mulling over closing its borders in response, and German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas noted that “negotiating on the backs of the weakest” would not yield the desired result.

The Turkish President visited Brussels on March 9^th to discuss the relationship with the European Union and the implementation of the migration agreement between the two entities. After the meeting, European Commission President Charles Michel announced in a press release that the council’s High Representative Josep Borrell and Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Minister, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, have been tasked with clarifying positions and the execution of the deal.

Nowhere to Run

Turkey hosts nearly 4 million refugees, mostly from Syria, and has long agitated the EU to share the burden more equitably.

Now, tens of thousands of desperate people have hit Europe’s southern borders – further inflaming already present tensions. In places like Lesbos, the needs of desperate refugees are pitted directly against overwhelmed locals. Turkey has sent over 1,000 soldiers to the border to prevent Greece pushing migrants back.

In response, Greece has suspended asylum applications for the month – despite the UN commenting that there is no legal basis for this – and is deporting all migrants attempting to enter. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has defended the decisions, and on March 1^st, a government spokesman said, “We stopped and protected our borders, which are also the EU’s borders.”

The EU has announced plans to enforce Greece’s southern borders, pledging 700 million euros in support and chiding Turkey for using desperate people as political pawns. Cyprus is sending some of its own security forces, and Frontex, the Union’s Border and Coast Guard Agency, will be working with Greece to deploy a rapid intervention team to land and sea borders. Meanwhile, the Mediterranean country is testing their new sea-fence – already widely criticised as a controversial and dubiously effective measure. This leaves Europe in a tight political situation, trying to toe the line between an already overwhelmed Greece and the needs of migrants.

“The EU is now paying the price for not having a functioning European migration policy even after years of negotiations”, claimed German paper Der Spiegel. “The EU countries left Greece alone with the arriving refugees. A moderate increase in their number was enough to bring the Greek reception system to the brink of collapse in July [2019].”

“Our first priority is making sure that order is maintained at the Greek external border, which is also a European border”, said EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, also calling Greece a “shield” for Europe. “I also want to express my compassion for the migrants that have been lured through false promises into this desperate situation,” von der Leyen added.

But this is cold comfort to the desperate seeking refuge from chaos. One migrant has allegedly died in clashes with Greek police, and it was reported that a young child drowned on a capsized boat. But Greece has accused Turkey of spreading false news, and categorically denies the charge. The frontline nation has also accused Turkey of using tear gas against refugees on their side of the border to create chaos and give them the opportunity to breach.

“Turkey has become an official trafficker of migrants to the European Union, and Greece does not accept this situation”, said Mitsotakis. “The problem is an asymmetric threat and illegal invasion of thousands of people that threatens our territory.” Despite their desperation, only a few thousand refugees have succeeded in crossing Greece’s borders this past week. However, a rising sense of panic has given way to some vigilante violence.

Turkey has capitalised on the situation – cynically exploiting both migrant desperation and EU apprehension – and saying that if Europe was serious, they would join Turkey’s efforts in Idlib against Russian forces. It’s not a subtle manoeuver, but it works to put Europe in a tight spot. “All other approaches outside of this will move the European Union, which is already wallowing in the mire of xenophobia and racism, a little further from its own values”, said Erdogan.

The migration crisis in 2015 helped to catapult right-wing, eurosceptic parties across Europe, in part because the EU never managed to craft a policy for this kind of situation. The new wave threatens to give them an electoral boost that the EU can ill afford. Worse, thanks to the spread of coronavirus, mass migration is bringing fresh anxieties to the fore and giving right-wing nationalists more reason to pursue hard-line policies.

In Hungary, Prime Minister Viktor Orban has announced that they have “indefinitely suspended access to border transit areas for asylum seekers” due to potential risks from the virus. “We observe a certain link between coronavirus and illegal migrants”, said Gyorgy Bakondi, a national security adviser to Orbán. No such link has yet been explained, however, as the first two confirmed cases in Hungary were from Iranian students, not Syrian refugees.

Migrants are also making their way to Cyprus, and protestors and police have clashed at checkpoints closed due to coronavirus prevention measures. Closures between the Turkish-controlled northern part of Cyprus were announced on February 28^th, and unrest first erupted the next day. Cyprus has no reported cases of Covid-19.

“We need a new deal with Turkey”, said Gerald Knaus, who heads a small migration-focused think tank. But the 2016 agreement has only served to push the problem onto Turkey rather than resolve the underlying issues. And stopgap measures hastily rolled out are unlikely to do much to help stem the flow of migration. Meanwhile, allowing Greece to suspend asylum, even only for a month, chips away at the EU’s commitment to safeguard human rights. “If Greece can suspend the right to asylum, what stops Hungary from suspending the next basic right? Viktor Orbán saw in the refugee crisis a great opportunity to end the era of human rights, and we risk proving him right”, said Knaus.

Threats to Schengen

Europe is already facing turmoil thanks to the threat posed by the novel coronavirus, or covid-19. As the disease spreads, calls from populists and far-right eurosceptic parties to close the borders have grown louder. While this has yet to occur, the increased calls for suspending Schengen are eroding a prized EU institution.

The Schengen zone, named after a city in Luxembourg where the 1985 treaty was signed, is part of what makes the EU work by allowing the free movement of goods, labour, and people. Shutting the 26-nation, passport-free zone down – even temporarily – could create a massive snarl in Europe’s economic engine and erode the political unity of the continent. But it’s already been suffering a slow demise from a thousand cuts, including when some countries suspended it during the height of the migrant crisis of 2015.

Germany, France, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, and Norway are arguably abusing the system too. These countries have checked the passports of travellers arriving from other Member States for the past four and a half years and have used legal manoeuvres to circumvent the legal two-year limit on suspending Schengen.

Marie De Somer, the head of the migration programme at the Brussels-based think tank European Policy Centre, believes that “Schengen is in a very poor and problematic state”. De Somer added that restoring the programme to its full functionality hinges on reforming the bloc’s asylum and migration rules – something the European Commission is eager to hammer out a plan for.

The commission also wants to bolster Frontex, the European Union Border Agency, by adding staff and funding and stepping up its operations at the bloc’s external borders. This would create a system for distributing asylum seekers among union members, however, and there are mixed responses. Hungary, for example, is likely to veto this plan. Germany believes all countries should take refugees whether they like it or not. Greece, already overwhelmed before the recent spike in violence in Syria and the concurrent rise in migrants seeking entry, wants asylum seekers already in the country to be taken out of detention centres. Meanwhile, Italy doesn’t want rescue boats to take refugees to its ports at all.

Experts caution that travel restrictions don’t really help to stop disease anyway. “Travel restrictions don’t work: people find another way around it, it might only slow the virus down”, said Dr. Clare Wenham of the London School of Economics Global Health Initiative. The WHO agrees that border restrictions are ineffective at best, and may “interrupt needed aid and technical support, may disrupt businesses and may have negative social and economic effects on the affected countries”.

But the facts don’t seem to matter. Whereas in 2015 the enemy was migrants, in 2020 the enemy is the migrants carrying the coronavirus, despite there being no evidence that it has come from migrants entering Europe.

“The government has underestimated the coronavirus”, said Matteo Salvini, the former Interior Minister of Italy, which has so far been the EU country hardest hit by the virus. “Allowing the migrants to land from Africa, where the presence of the virus was confirmed, is irresponsible.”

The post The Floodgates Open as Europe Finds Itself Underwater appeared first on South EU Summit.

Those who live in the central touristy portions of the city have noticed that visitors are increasingly falling prey to individuals selling fake drugs, causing concern over whether this could clear tourism out of the centre. Police say these drugs are usually made of bay leaves, flour, or ground paracetamol.

The police commissioner for the criminal investigation department of Lisbon, Bruno Pereira, tells Reuters that “Tourists are unaware of this phenomenon so they are fooled”. Even those who are drug users could be duped into purchasing a fake version, with vendors showing clients a sample of a real drug but pulling the swap right after they pay.

Meanwhile, many tourists are being harassed by persistent dealers. Reuters reports that travellers are sometimes forced into temporarily hiding inside establishments like bars or cafes. One tour guide told the media outlet that “Everyone on my tours gets asked if they want drugs…Some just laugh, but others don’t like it at all”.

Entire TripAdvisor message boards are devoted to the drug issue occurring in Lisbon. People write about feeling uncomfortable after repeatedly being offered drugs, with some describing aggressive interactions, while many wonder why police do nothing to quash the issue. One reviewer even specifically suggests avoiding Lisbon altogether based on the pushiness of dealers – exactly the advice that local business owners and those who count on tourism are afraid of.

Tourism is a big deal in a country where the total contribution of the travel sector to Portugal’s 2018 GDP was as high as 19.1 percent. The industry has played a major role in pulling the country’s economy out of its 2011-2014 debt crisis. Despite uncertainty over how Brexit could affect numbers and the slowdown of British visitors, tourism from the US went up by 24 percent in 2018. And in 2019, Portugal saw nearly 26 million visitors, with approximately 8.6 million visiting the capital city.

Police say this issue needs “constant attention”, but it appears that they are at a loss for how to make this happen. Currently, law enforcement is working to deter the purchase of fake drugs by encouraging tourists to buy real ones instead. One poster in a series released by police said, “Need some seasoning? There’s cheaper bay leaf in the grocery store. Don’t buy fake drugs!” However, this messaging doesn’t inform individuals of the fact that many dealers are pulling a bait-and-switch to fool even those who know what they are looking for.

Periera believes that legislation addressing the issue is necessary to crack down on fake dealers. Drugs are decriminalised in Portugal, but they are not legal – meaning it is not a crime to possess a certain quantity, but it is a crime to sell it. And since these vendors are technically not even selling real drugs, they operate in a grey zone that hasn’t been addressed in previous legislation. Dealers could potentially be prosecuted for breaching street licensing laws, but because they are selling bay leaves and flour, it’s difficult to pin down an appropriate punishment.

Malta as an Example

Portugal is not the first Southern European country to deal with an influx of fake drugs. Malta, which has only partially decriminalised drugs, experienced a similar problem back in 2014. At the time, a forensic expert warned fellow member states that existing efforts across the European Union were not sufficient in policing fakes, particularly since new versions were continually being made.

Then in 2017, Maltese police struggled to stem the flow of Chinese synthetics sold as authentic drugs to tourists. Bath salts were packaged as MDMA and cocaine, a substitution that EU health officials believed could potentially be dangerous in the long-term. It was a lucrative business for dealers, as weekend clubgoers and partiers sometimes paid as much as 400 euros for cocaine.

Later that same year, Justice Minister Owen Bonnici announced legislation that, “whether through specific listings or through more generic definitions would ‘catch’ a spectrum of such drugs”. Malta was also quick to ban N-Ethylnorpentylone, known also as Chinese ecstasy, a drug that is supposed to taste like MDMA but can often be lethal.

If Portugal hopes to continue seeing high tourism numbers, passing new legislation aimed at banning fake drugs could be the necessary action needed to better police the situation.

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Responses have been dramatic. On January 23^rd, China put the entire city of Wuhan, where the virus first emerged from one of their famous wet markets, on lockdown, followed by the entire province of Hubei. Airlines around the world have cancelled flights in and out of China, and cruise ships full of passengers have been quarantined offshore. The United States, France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Sweden are just some of the countries that have airlifted their citizens on emergency flights out of China, setting up quarantine facilities to contain any carriers. Despite these measures, the disease continues to spread across Asia, Europe, and the US.

The scene sounds like something out of a Hollywood blockbuster, and citizens are scared. Similar to when SARS broke out in 2003, people are regarding Chinese nationals – and anyone who looks Asian – with suspicion. Chinatowns in the United States and Europe are deserted, despite having no more likelihood to be vectors for the disease than any other city. In universities, supermarkets, and elsewhere, multiple instances of xenophobic backlash have been reported. And on social media, conspiracy theories and misinformation abound, inflaming fear and loathing.

“People with a different national, ethnic or religious background have historically been accused of spreading germs regardless of what the science may say”, says Monica Schoch-Spana, a medical anthropologist and a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. During an outbreak of H1N1 swine flu in 2009, Mexicans and Latinos were similarly scapegoated, as were people of African descent during the 2014 Ebola outbreak. History reminds us that Jews in Europe were likewise accused of spreading the plague. And though some are using social media to push back against racism, it is proving to be an uphill battle. In France, the hashtag #JeNeSuisPasUnVirus – meaning “I am not a virus” – is being widely used.

But the real danger of the coronavirus isn’t in the illness it may cause: it is in the crashed economy, the spread of conspiracy and misinformation, and unchecked xenophobia. Together, these three perils do more damage to global society than any virus.

How Bad Is It, Really?

If an individual has survived the flu, it is likely they can survive the new coronavirus. Though the former is normally caused by influenza strains, many cold and flu-like diseases are produced by coronaviruses – a class of virus named for its structure – and most of them are survivable. A vast majority of those who have succumbed to the disease have been elderly or dealing with underlying medical conditions that already significantly impacted their health.

SARS, for example, was a type of coronavirus – though it spread much more slowly than the strain being dealt with now. By the time the emergency was over in 2003, barely more than 8,000 cases had occurred. And MERS has been in circulation since 2012, but little more than 2,000 cases have been reported. In contrast, this virus is more infectious and a lot more like the flu. However, both SARS and MERS are far deadlier than today’s coronavirus. MERS kills approximately one in three of those it infects, and SARS one in ten. Today’s coronavirus has a death rate of 2 percent, though the number may be lower due to under-reporting. By all accounts and statistics: influenza is deadlier.

Though over a thousand cases have been reported in Europe – particularly in northern Italy – the African continent is facing the highest risk. More than one million Chinese people work and live on the continent, and many Africans do the same in China – leading to a huge amount of traffic that can rapidly spread a pathogen through a population.

The best way to prevent catching the coronavirus is taking the same precautions you would to avoid catching the flu. Wash your hands, cough into your elbow, and stay home if you’re feeling sick.

The Price of Misinformation

The ubiquity of social media means that misinformation about the coronavirus, including fraudulent miracle cures and xenophobic commentary, continues to spread and leaves with it a state of fear and confusion.

Though many concerned individuals are not malicious, some are, in fact, deliberately acting in bad faith and have found opportunity to boost traffic to their online pages or line their own pockets. Some viral tweets recommend drinking bleach as a cure. Elsewhere, YouTube videos accusing various governments of a cover-up are gaining popularity. Other accounts concern vaccines for the virus, which are very far from development, and anti-vax conspiracies are gaining traction. Even some newspapers have printed misinformation and hyperbole, which have been widely shared on social media, after which corrections struggle to receive the same attention.

“It’s the perfect intersection of fear, racism and distrust of the government and Big Pharma”, said Maarten Schenk, co-founder of the fact-checking site Lead Stories. “People don’t trust the official narrative.”

“Rumors can travel more quickly and more widely than they could”, in an era before social media, said Thomas Rid, Professor of Strategic Studies at Johns Hopkins University. “That of course lends itself to conspiracies spreading more quickly. They spread more widely and they are more persistent in the sense that you can’t undo them.”

To help stem the tide of false information, Twitter is directing its users to reliable sources. “We’ve launched a new dedicated search prompt to ensure that when you come to the service for information about the #coronavirus, you’re met with credible, authoritative information first”, the social media site wrote in a blog post.

Facebook’s fact-checkers have also been labelling misinformation posted on their platform, as well as promoting educational pop-ups, but there is still difficulty in addressing information spread in private groups, which acts as an incubator for conspiracies. China has had difficulties cracking down both on misinformation and anti-government sentiment posted on WeChat and Weibo. Meanwhile, the use of traditional Chinese medicine to treat coronavirus is also on the rise, as supplies run out and science has yet to find a way to halt the disease in its tracks, even as new hospitals are being built in less than two weeks.

“Early days in an outbreak, there’s so much uncertainty. People don’t like uncertainty. They want answers”, said Timothy Caulfield, a health law professor at the University of Alberta. “Social media is a polarisation machine where the loudest voices win. In an outbreak, where you want accurate, measured discourse, that’s kind of a worst-case scenario.”

Economic Impact

Widespread disease outbreaks cause massive hits to global finance and relations. After the US released a travel advisory warning their citizens to avoid visiting China, the latter accused the United States of fearmongering. Airlines have grounded their China routes, and holiday celebrations and sports events around the world have been cancelled or postponed.

“There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel”, Hua Chunying, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in a statement earlier this month. Hua said the US “hasn’t provided any substantive assistance to us, but it was the first to evacuate personnel from its consulate in Wuhan, the first to suggest partial withdrawal of its embassy staff, and the first to impose a travel ban on Chinese travellers. What it has done could only create and spread fear, which is a very bad example”.

The World Health Organization agrees. “There is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade”, the WHO’s Director-General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told the Executive Board in Geneva. “The chance of getting this (virus) going to anywhere outside China is very low, and even in China when you go to other provinces, it’s very low.”

The cost of fear is measured in money. With travel to and from China halted for the time being –except for Europe and the United States airlifting their citizens out – the tourist, entertainment, and hospitality sectors have taken a massive hit during what is normally a very busy season. Cities around the world are feeling the pain.

Elizabeth Chin, a travel agent and the chairwoman of the trade group New York Chapter of the Pacific Asia Travel Association, noted that “It’s going to be a serious financial burden. The flights are cancelled. The tour operators have cancelled”. There are approximately 300 cancellations so far and counting. Over one million Chinese nationals visited New York City in 2018, representing approximately 1.6 percent of the 65 million tourists the city sees – and monetarily benefits from – each year.

Europe’s Chinatowns are faring similarly. “Compared to the last few months, we lost around 50 percent of our customers”, said Martin Ma, the general manager of Jinli, a restaurant with two locations in London. “The reason is the virus.”

Tourism Economics, a group that conducts travel-industry research, is predicting a 28 percent drop in visitors to the United States from China in 2020, representing billions less in spending. The conclusions were based on the SARS outbreak, which lasted about four months, and the travel industry’s rebound later that year. It took three years for the tourism numbers to bounce back, and the same can be expected for tourism to and from Europe as well.

Financial markets are feeling the pinch, too. China’s stock market plunged 8 percent on the first day of trading after the Lunar New Year, when markets re-opened. To offset the deleterious economic impact, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has pumped hundreds of billions of euros worth of yuan into the financial system. In the past two days, the PBOC has injected 1.7 trillion yuan (over 200 billion euros) through open market operations. European markets saw their worst day since Brexit in 2016 on February 24, with the United States seeing stocks drop even further the following day.

Nor does playing the financial market offset the disruptions to supply chains. In today’s increasingly interconnected world, countries are dependent on each other for different materials, supplies, manufacturing, and even oil and energy. Interrupting this system, even only temporarily, causes massive global financial pain. It also doesn’t address the lost wages for those who were sick, or their caregivers who had to stay home and nurse their loved ones.

It is possible that the coronavirus may postpone or even disrupt Chinese investment in Southern Europe, which the region can ill afford to go without. China is a major investor in Greek shipping and their Piraeus Port, and seeks to turn the country’s largest port into one of the leading container terminals in Europe within the next four to five years. China also invested in Greece’s electric grid after the EU did not sufficiently fund the project.

Meanwhile, the country has pumped billions into Portugal during their years of austerity, leaving China a powerful ally within the EU to defend cooperation and trade, despite growing European suspicion. Some have accused Portugal of being “China’s special friend”, a rhetoric that Foreign Minister Augusto Santos Silva rejects. Silva told the Financial Times that “a myth has been created that Portugal is some kind of a special friend of China in Europe. That makes no sense at all”.

Even so, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a global development and investment venture that China leverages to gain influence abroad, does remain at work in Southern Europe. “There is no doubt that the Chinese will continue to invest in small EU countries in a bid to increase their influence”, said Ilídio Serodio of the Portuguese-Chinese Chamber of Commerce in Lisbon.

The post It’s Not the Germs That’ll Get You appeared first on South EU Summit.

The law promises modernised approaches to abuse, including easier and more appropriate mechanisms for children to report and testify against abusers. It will also extend the statute of limitations, with crimes now expiring at age 45, and put emphasis on education and preventative measures.

Iglesias promises that it will not just protect “the boys and girls in this country, but should also be a global point of reference for the protection of childhood and adolescence and should become one of the elements that defines the actions of this government”.

The law is named after James Rhodes, a British concert pianist and public figure who is also a resident of Madrid. The artist has lived in Spain since 2017, and while he waxes poetic about much of the country, he has also taken issue with the widespread abuse of children. Part of his passion for change stems from his own traumatic past – one that he wrote about in an autobiography and released following a legal battle that involved an injunction on its publication.

He tells the BBC about living in Spain, “[T]here was this one thing I could not reconcile, and it was that every week there was another story of child rape, child abuse, not just in the Church, but in schools and families.” The legal system in Spain is “centuries out of date”, says Rhodes, noting that children are required to testify in court against their abuser, occasionally right in front of this person.

The pianist campaigned in favour of children’s rights for the last two years, beginning with a message to Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in 2018. Though Sánchez promised action, this legislation was quickly eclipsed by other pressures on the government, including Catalonia’s push for independence and a constant cycle of political instability.

But Rhodes was not deterred. He took to his social media and appeared in Spanish news, and in early February, Deputy Prime Minister Pablo Iglesias decided to take this on as a priority for the coalition government. Iglesias says that Rhodes “has brought valuable content to the law and could be an ambassador in the fight for the defence of rights during childhood the world over”.

A History of Abuse in Spain

Following the announcement of the law, Rhodes tweeted, “I am aware that ‘Rhodes Law’ is trending [on Twitter]…Please, let us remember what the law is about, how urgent it is and the shameful situation of the boys and girls who were raped in Mallorca. There is a lot of work to do.”

This mention, and much of the urgency behind Rhodes’ work, stems from a report released by the register of child mistreatment (RUMI), which revealed that there were 4,417 known cases of child abuse in the Balearic islands in 2018. This is an increase from 1,563 notifications of abuse in 2014; the rise could be, in part, attributed to difficult and prohibitive processes.

There are more concrete cases of abuse to look into; in January 2020 a separate report indicated that five employees at three different juvenile detention centres were fired for abuses towards minors. One occurred in 2016, with two in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Social Services Minister Fina Santiago told the Majorca Daily Bulletin, “We have evidence of five cases in which inappropriate behaviours of workers with minors has been detected, although none of them have had complete sexual relations according to the statements made by the victims.”

She went on to say that all five employees had been fired and stressed that “under no circumstances will inappropriate behaviour be allowed by professionals working in the centres managed by the Government”.

Older cases are only now coming to light. Fifty-two-year-old Emiliano Álvarez suffered abuse at the hands of staff from La Bañeza’s Seminario Menor boarding school beginning at age eleven, and highlighted some of these horrors in an interview with BBC.

A 1995 study from Salamanca University reports that one in five adults surveyed had been sexually abused when they were young. Author Juan Ignacio Cortés wrote about paedophilia and the church in Spain, saying that many cases are never taken seriously and leave victims with the sense that their well-being doesn’t matter – a sentiment that extends beyond religious contexts. “They complain about ridiculous sentences for abusers and are left feeling rejected and humiliated”, Cortés told the BBC.

Save the Children’s Director General in Spain, Andrés Conde, agrees that this is a huge problem that needs addressing in the country. Conde also spoke to the BBC, saying “It is becoming clearer every day that Spain has an enormous problem with violence against children, and specifically with sexual abuse against boys, girls, and adolescents. Politicians cannot continue to look the other way”.

Political Pressure and Motives

It is important to note that the social importance of this law has been mired in controversy, with Rhodes himself admitting it has “become a political football”.

Spain’s conservative opposition parties believe Iglesias’ move is hypocritical and meant to cover for Balearic Island allies in regional parliament who were accused of prostituting minors. Partido Popular politician Margarita Prohens told Congress that Iglesias and other ministers were “fighting among themselves to put a name to the child protection reform” and simultaneously “protecting members of the administration in charge of those girls because they are from the left”.

The new coalition government faces intense scrutiny from centre-right and far-right parties such as Vox and Partido Popular, and is often charged with wanting to “break Spain’s unity”. But Iglesias has nevertheless persevered, and it is likely that he won’t just stop at Rhodes Law.

He has expressed interest in tackling social issues like rape legislation and euthanasia, repealing the country’s gag law, banning public praising of former dictator Francisco Franco, and working to expand Spain’s historical memory. But if the Deputy Prime Minister is not able to pass Rhodes Law, he may struggle to get remaining pieces of legislation passed as Spain’s trend of politics trumping social change continues on.

The post Spain’s Rhodes Law Seeks to Prevent Child Abuse appeared first on South EU Summit.

The upcoming elections are being likened to a referendum on the pro-EU stance of the ruling Social Democrats and former Prime Minister Zoran Zaev, who resigned last month in the face of the union’s refusal to set a date for accession talks. Since then, the country has been ruled by an interim government, led by Interior Minister Oliver Spasovski, who is now being tasked with ensuring conditions for a free and fair vote.

“I believe that all the decisions we have made in this parliament were in the interest of our citizens”, said speaker Talat Xhaferi to the last session of the 120-seat parliament on February 16^th.

Before its dissolution, parliament unanimously backed entering NATO. “By joining this alliance, we are not simply joining an international organisation”, said North Macedonian President Stevo Pendarovski prior to the vote. “Membership of the world’s most powerful military-political alliance is a privilege, but also a huge responsibility.” The vote is “a major step in completing Macedonian statehood and a (guarantee) for our territorial integrity and sovereignty,” added Pendarovski.

But joining NATO hinges upon the fragile Prespes Agreement, and its failure would give a major boost to eurosceptic and nationalist parties in both Greece and North Macedonia. Just last month, a member of the North Macedonian caretaker cabinet, Labour and Social Policy Minister Rashela Mizrahi, was dismissed from her post after refusing to abide by the name change at two major news conferences. Spasovski argued that Mizrahi “deliberately and consciously breached the laws and constitution,” and thereby “endangered” North Macedonia’s Euro-Atlantic future.

In response, Mizrahi blamed her predecessor for not changing the country’s signage, but also referred to the Prespes Agreement as an “injustice” – a move backed by the country’s conservative opposition, the VMRO-DPMNE party.

“We should thank the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs for not changing the board and recognising deeply that this is the Republic of Macedonia and this is the Macedonian people,” she added.

In response, North Macedonia’s Foreign Minister, Nikola Dimitrov, said “The state will not allow such infantilism. The Labour and Social Policy Ministry is not her private apartment, just as the constitution is not merely a piece of paper. The Minister may not like the constitution or the Prespa treaty, but that does not entitle her to not apply it. Without the principle of constitutionality and legality, nothing will be left of the state.”

Greece sent a verbal note of protest to North Macedonia for the breach of the Prespes Agreement by the now-ousted minister.

The Stakes Remain High

Once North Macedonia changed its name, Greece lifted the veto on its Balkan neighbour joining the EU and NATO. In a 153-140 vote taken in February of last year, Greek lawmakers backed the protocol that must still be approved by all the other NATO members. “I would like to again welcome North Macedonia, a country that is friendly toward Greece, a country that must be a supporter – and not an opponent – of our efforts to establish safety, stability, and cooperation in the wider region”, said former Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras last year, after the vote was called. Meanwhile, only Spain has yet to ratify its accession, and is expected to do so by mid-March.

In October 2019, French President Emmanuel Macron halted EU accession plans when he refused to let talks begin despite increased European concern over Chinese and Russian interference in the Balkans.

Macron also rejected opening accession discussions with other eastern European states like Serbia, Montenegro, and Albania. At the time, Macron’s office cited concern over the cumbersome accession process, as well as interest in tackling corruption and integration within EU borders before proceeding with further enlargement. Apprehension over the rule of law and combatting corruption in would-be future states was also noted, something France believes the EU rushed through when bringing Romania and Bulgaria into the bloc in 2007. The fact that these challenges came about during a time when the EU is facing a resurgent Russia and China, Brexit, migration challenges, and global climate change, only contributes to French reticence.

At the time, Jean-Claude Juncker, then-President of the commission, called Macron’s stance a “grave, historic error”, and top EU enlargement negotiator Johannes Hahn said the blockage was “not a moment of glory for Europe”. Even so, the European Commission recently submitted a stricter and reversible EU accession procedure, including the ability to freeze funds and reset negotiations, in order to meet France’s demands for reform ahead of a summit on the Balkans this May.

Some Member States, however, are concerned that delaying enlargement only offers ammunition to those who butt heads with the region. North Macedonia’s name change was a clear signal of alignment with NATO and the EU. But if tangible results don’t soon materialise, the nation and its neighbours could decide to swing back to Russian and Chinese influence, which comes with almost-immediate material benefits thanks to outreach programmes like the Belt and Road Initiative.

To that end, Macron recently hinted that French opposition to Albania and North Macedonia’s EU bids might be coming to an end. “We are all awaiting a report from the European Commission in March on the two countries”, the French President said at the annual Munich security conference. “We have to see what the Commission is going to say about the state of the expected progress”, adding that “if the results are positive and confidence is established, we then should be able to open negotiations”. Though accession talks could begin as early as March 2019, negotiations for the EU’s enlargement will take several years.

And Macron couldn’t resist swiping at the blame that seems to have landed at his feet for the decision: “I salute the great courage which consists in hiding behind France when there is a disagreement but I can tell you that several states were against the opening of negotiations with Macedonia and Albania”, he said — not referring to Denmark and the Netherlands, who had allied with his stance in October to postpone enlargement, by name.

But the French President still urged his fellow government leaders to remember that expansion is not the answer to all the union’s problems. Of concern is that a larger EU means a larger budget, something the bloc’s northern members generally oppose. “[If] it doesn’t work at 27 (EU members) so do you think it will work if we’re 32 or 33? We are not coherent. The implicit strategy is that we think of Europe as a big market…but not a political power with collective preferences and a minimum of convergence”, Macron stated.

North Macedonia and Albania have promised to deliver on needed reforms in time, said the EU’s Enlargement Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi. Speaking at a think tank event, Varhelyi stated, “I am very encouraged by my visits to both countries. They do not give up on reforms…and you will see that they will deliver, and if they do that, you can be confident that there should be an opening of negotiations.”

“There is nothing but membership on offer”, he added.

The post Parliament Dissolves as North Macedonia Vies for Accession appeared first on South EU Summit.

Pedro Barato, President of Asaja, an association of young growers, summarised the many problems his industry faces to El Pais, saying “the EU’s environmental requirements, the demonisation of activities over animal welfare, tougher and more expensive legislation regarding the use of some fertilisers and sanitary products, renewed threats of fewer subsidies when the [EU’s] Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) gets reviewed…we can’t go on like this. And to top it all off, there’s the new minimum wage, which does not seriously affect the entire sector, but it does affect those activities that are very labour-intensive, such as fruit and vegetables and some vineyards”.

Meanwhile, matters are being compounded by lowered prices for food products throughout the EU. In total, the sector saw an 8.6 percent decrease in income – amounting to billions of euros – last year. The Spanish Ministry of Agriculture concedes that this is a tough time for farmers and believe that action is necessary.

But Spain is not the only EU nation where farmers are frustrated by the state of agriculture. Major protests related to environmental policy occurred in Germany’s capital, Berlin, during International Green Week, a food and agricultural fair that took place last month. And Greece’s farmers have also staged their own recent strikes throughout the country because of the CAP, stopping traffic in Larissa, Volos, Karditsa, and Trikala in the northern part of the country. Unfortunately for Greece, these protests have been happening for years with no tangible results other than minor inconveniences for motorists.

Wages and Production Costs

The new wage hike instituted by Spain’s governing coalition of the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Unidas Podemos has increased Spain’s minimum wage from 750 to 900 euros per month, having already been put into effect, and even backdated to the beginning of January 2020. While this may be a positive change for citizens in other industries, farms that rely on large numbers of field workers are feeling the burn.

Juan Hernández, a manager at Paloma, employs approximately 2,000 people on his farm and claims this new law will influence close to 70 percent of his workforce. “It will seriously affect competitiveness in areas such as tomatoes or strawberries, where the picking work represents more than 45 percent of overall costs”, he says.

Another major point of contention is the cost of products. Enrique Sánchez, a grape grower in the province of Alicante, is particularly frustrated by unsustainably low pricing – a positive for consumers, but a massive negative for the farming community. “We are selling the grapes at prices of 20 to 25 years ago”, he said to El Pais. “If I have to give away everything I make and there is nothing left for me, it is impossible to make a living.”

José Diego Garrido, another Spanish farmer, presents the numbers plainly: “I work 35 hectares of traditionally irrigated olive groves, and my production costs are no lower than €2.50 a kilogram, whereas I am earning €1.70 a kilogram.”

There are many reasons behind a fall in food prices, including an inability by governments to regulate markets, as well as an influx of cheaper imported products.

Lorenzo Ramos, secretary general of UPA, an agricultural union in Spain, indicates that what farmers receive is only a very small portion of what customers pay, so those in the industry want some kind of regulation on this, as well as on the long-standing strategy employed by most major food chains of operating at a loss. Ramos says, “It’s crazy what’s happening in the food chain; there should be a mechanism so that producers at least have their production costs covered”.

And stone fruit farmer, Domingo Garcia, agrees that changes must happen, and fast. “The system is failing…It would be enough if growers were paid 15 cents more per kilo. They wouldn’t get rich, but at least they would cover costs.”

Combatting the CAP

Farmers across the European Union are also protesting decreased government subsidies stemming from the Common Agricultural Policy, a complicated financial structure in need of change.

When the CAP was created in 1962, it was intended to ensure that the continent, still recovering from World War II, would be able to provide enough food for its citizens. Fast forward 58 years, and today it essentially acts as a subsidy system for farmers and is often the reason they are able to stay afloat. The CAP is one of the biggest financial programmes in the European Union – with an annual spend of about 114 euros per citizen – and is the largest subsidy system in the world. For an average consumer, this may seem like an exorbitant amount given other financial needs across the EU.

Meanwhile, corruption scandals that have come to light in recent years are strikingly nefarious and include defrauding the programme. In Italy, a country that takes approximately 12 percent of CAP payments, the Sicilian mafia has pocketed nearly 10 million euros since 2013. Not only did some farms fraudulently qualify for aid, but their land – and resulting financial benefits – was acquired through extortion and threats. Five Star Movement parliament member Gianluca Rizzo stated that the arrests made in this case are “a true and real blow to the heart of a criminal system that, sucking away European funds to develop our region, makes money off the backs of future generations”.

Some mobsters have extended their reach beyond Italy’s borders; in Slovakia, an “agricultural mafia” was found to have infiltrated the farm industry in order to benefit from the CAP, resulting in the death of investigative journalist Jan Kuciak and his fiancée, Martina Kusnirova.

But this isn’t the only example of a population taking advantage of subsidies. The New York Times published an investigation in November of 2019 that illustrates a reality of land grabs, government deals shrouded in secrecy, and what amounts to a modern-day feudal system in countries like Hungary, Bulgaria, and the Czech Republic. Even at the highest level of the European Union, those voting on the CAP policies in Brussels do not seem to have a clear idea of what is happening with said subsidies.

Even still, farmers are fiercely protecting this programme while simultaneously pushing for it to undergo necessary changes.

Last year saw a number of protests related to CAP policies, with an EU-wide alliance calling for “the CAP’s re-orientation to support a greater supply of local foods”, and the elimination (or at least alteration) of direct payments, which benefit huge companies but not small to medium-scale farmers. Studies have shown that 80 percent of payments go to just 20 percent of farms, and many use this money for political gain. In Spain, 2018 saw the country as the second biggest recipient of subsidies in the EU, so restructuring of these payments would be significant.

Meanwhile, farmers in the UK will not be receiving any CAP benefits due to Brexit, although the country is supposed to continue paying into the system. For now, 2020 seems to be a period of limbo for Europe’s agricultural sector, with farmers across Member States apprehensive over what 2021 could bring about.

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The improvements being made in Greek-US relations come at a time when Athens is increasingly viewed by Washington, DC as the most stable centre-point in an unpredictable region – a position formerly held by Turkey.

But Turkish moves in the Middle East and internationally condemned drilling in waters off the coast of Cyprus have soured the country’s relationship with both Europe and the US. These tensions have shown through in recent months, most notably with the US removing Ankara from its F-35 fighter jets programme after Ankara chose to invest in a Russian missile-defence system.

The eastern Mediterranean

The US is eager to support EU nations – and Israel – in obtaining energy independence from Russia, and has thrown its support behind Greece’s recent signing of a new energy deal.

In a clear action taken against Turkey’s drilling incursions in the region, the Greeks have partnered with Cyprus and Israel to develop a 1,900 kilometre subsea pipeline to carry gas from the eastern Mediterranean’s increasingly valuable deposits to Europe. The agreement, signed by Energy Minister Kostis Hatzidakis, is valued at approximately 6 billion euros.

The move has infuriated Turkey, who argues that the project is unnecessary due to the existing Trans-Anatolian pipeline and notes that their country is the most secure route through which to distribute gas to Europe. But strained relations mean Greece is eager to promote any scheme which increases energy security in the region.

The gas pipeline deal represents just one arm of cooperation among Greece, Cyprus, and Israel. Greece bears significant weight in Cyprus due to a shared history, culture, and identity, and it’s relationship with Israel has developed considerably in recent years. The three nations partake in an annual summit to discuss matters relating to the eastern Mediterranean, sharing information and policy on energy and energy security, the refugee crisis, counterterrorism, counter proliferation of weapons, maritime security, and defence cooperation. Last year’s summit was attended by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, a further sign of Washington’s growing interest in matters relating to the region.

Turkey

Many major Greek foreign policy challenges in the eastern Mediterranean stem from relations with Turkey. Mitsotakis has voiced frustration over Greece being isolated when it comes to its dealings with Ankara, and has called on Member States to realise that issues pertaining to migration and sovereignty incursions are European challenges – not just Greek ones.

In an interview with French political quarterly Politique, Mitsotakis said “Europe does not seem to treat our problem as a European problem”, pointing to the migrant deal as an example, and adding that “any problems Greece has with Turkey, or with any other country, are automatically also problems of the European Union”.

A deal made in 2016 between the EU and Turkey greatly reduced the migrant influx encountered by frontline nations. But since September 2019, there has been a resurgence of refugee arrivals in Greece, with more than 74,000 registered last year according to UN figures. This has led to increased tensions on Aegean islands such as Kos and Lesbos, where further detention centres have been planned – albeit to the disdain of local citizens.

Meanwhile, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias has suggested that the country may deploy military personnel to Libya as part of the EU’s Sofia mission – which enforces an arms embargo on the country’s warring sides – and an array of Patriot missiles to Saudi Arabia “to protect critical infrastructure”, from possible attacks such as the one Iran was allegedly behind against the Abqaiq and Khurais oil installations last year. Traditionally, Greece’s foreign policy approach has been to remain neutral in active conflicts and maintain friendly relations, when possible, with larger nearby countries such as Iran and Russia.

Mitsotakis has also noted that Ankara’s recent moves to claim large portions of the eastern Mediterranean as its maritime territory, including the sea border deal between Ankara and the Tripoli-based government, amounted to a “blatant provocation” toward Europe.

“Europe, together with Greece of course, should react accordingly. They should remind Turkish President Erdogan that our borders are immovable and unnegotiable”, said the Prime Minister, who described his country as a “pillar of stability and security in the East Mediterranean”.

One of the few benefits stemming from increased tensions with Libya and Turkey has been the development of a far stronger relationship with Egypt, which has backed Greece’s criticism of the sea border deal.

Despite current difficulties, diplomatic channels remain open and bilateral relations between Greek and Turkish military officials, branded as “confidence building measures”, took place over the course of last week in Athens. However, there is no report on what, if anything, was accomplished. Of particular concern to Greece is the almost constant airspace violations by Turkish fighter aircraft, which number in the hundreds on an annual basis.

Greece has Europe’s largest fleet of battle armour, and defence spending has always remained a high priority for Greek administrations – even during the period of austerity. Mitsotakis is expected to continue investing in the country’s armed forces, particularly their aerial capability, through the upgrade of their F16 fleet.

The Balkans and EU Accession

Elsewhere, the New Democracy-led administration is looking to establish the country as a leading economic and cultural centre in Southeastern Europe, and build on the settlement of the decades-long name dispute with North Macedonia (previously known as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia). The issue was settled under the Prespa accord, signed by former Prime Minister, Alexis Tsipras, in April 2019.

Meanwhile Greece, along with most EU nations, has been critical of French, Danish, and Dutch moves to block EU accession talks for North Macedonia and Albania. Athens favours accession roadmaps for the remaining Western Balkan nations who are not EU members (Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo and North Macedonia), to guarantee a more stable western flank in the region.

Speaking before a NATO conference last November, Mitsotakis said “If we look at the big geopolitical context, it is very clear that the European path needs to be kept open for all Western Balkan countries, provided they meet the requirements, this is not an automatic process, otherwise this void is going to be filled. And I also take some cues from Greece’s story, in 1979 Greece [concluded negotiations to become] a member of the European Economic Community, because a French president, at the time, took a bold decision, looking at the bigger geopolitical context, that Greece had to belong to Europe in order to overcome the trauma of the junta (military dictatorship).”

The Prime Minister has been a firm defender of NATO as the primary pillar of European defence. And in the face of growing instability in North Africa, the eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East, his administration is likely to continue establishing strong bilateral ties with NATO allies in Europe and the United States.

But for now, it seems as though the success of Greek foreign policy will be shaped, to a very large extent, by how the country deals with the increasingly unpredictable Turkish influence in the region.

The post Greek Foreign Policy Hinges on Increased Cooperation appeared first on South EU Summit.

US President Donald Trump has announced increased tariff rates of 15 percent, beginning this March, on aircraft imported from the European Union. This is up from the previous 10 percent duties on Airbus aircraft and 25 percent tax on a range of European consumer exports including Scotch whisky, French wine, and Spanish olives imposed last October.

“We’re doing everything possible to limit the impact on Italy, but the Americans have the upper hand”, said Scalfarotto. “Italy isn’t part of the Airbus consortium, and tariffs will have a cost for American companies, restaurants, families.”

“Italy today emerges undamaged from the revision of the list of products subjected to tariffs imposed by the US last October”, Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio announced in a statement released earlier this month.

This past January, France was also able to score a truce. After French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to pull back on taxing American tech giants like Google and Amazon, Trump agreed to back off on levying tariffs on their goods. The détente isn’t permanent, but rather a play for time in developing a long-term, mutually satisfying solution.

“We will work together on a good agreement to avoid tariff escalation”, Macron announced on Twitter. “Excellent!” Trump replied via the social media site.

But the slow rate of negotiations has frustrated some French officials, who insist that digital giants must pay their fair share in taxes. Bruno Le Maire, France’s finance minister, has said that while Trump “agreed to avoid all escalation between the US and France on this digital tax issue”, discussions on finding a compromise “remain difficult”.

Meanwhile, France has delayed finalising its taxes until the end of 2020, and Brussels is unlikely to back down on the issue. Last summer, the European Commission proposed a revamp on how taxes are levied on American tech giants operating in Europe, triggering alarm for the United States’ Silicon Valley headquarters. The OECD’s original proposal – which aligns with the goals of many EU states – would allow countries to tax large, multinational corporations based on where sales occur, rather than where they are incorporated. “In a digital age, the allocation of taxing rights can no longer be exclusively circumscribed by reference to physical presence”, the document states. In response, Trump has threatened retaliatory tariffs if these measures are indeed pushed through.

Italy and Austria are among 15 countries set to levy similar taxes by June. Great Britain, Israel, Turkey, and India are also currently working on their own versions.

“Digital taxes are going to happen one way or another. We prefer an international solution. But it’s up to the US to decide”, said Le Maire.

Global Market Turmoil

It remains to be seen if France and Italy’s avoidance of tariffs will be enough to navigate the fallout from this week’s stock market plunge.

For weeks, international finance has remained tentatively buoyant in the face of the coronavirus, but recent outbreaks in Italy, South Korea, Iran, and Israel have caused a dreadful about-face. In the worst showing in two years, the S&P 500 is down 3 percent and the Dow Jones has dipped more than 3.5 percent. Monday, February 24^th, saw European markets experience their worst day since the Brexit referendum in 2016, and Asian markets continued their downward slide. Nearly 1 trillion euros worth vanished off the global stock market in a single day.

Complicating matters is the unexpected shrinking of both the French and Italian economies last quarter – in part due to France’s sustained pension reform strikes, as well as increased global uncertainty in the face of the rapidly spreading virus. The two countries are, respectively, the eurozone’s second and third largest economies, and their contraction may create knock-on effects for the rest of Europe.

Meanwhile, Greek and Italian bonds have experienced increased demand, seen as investor havens, as borrowing costs continue to fall – a stunning change from when these countries were viewed as high-risk debt markets. This inclination could change, however, if investors become further spooked by the coronavirus or other trends in the market.

“The longer it takes for production to resume, the higher the risks”, said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. Europe’s economic powerhouse, Germany, is reliant on China for auto industry parts – and a hiccup in that production line has already resulted in a fourth quarter slump.

Germany’s problems may soon become the EU’s, due to so many small and midsize parts’ suppliers depending on the country for sales. Italy’s economy also shrank in the fourth quarter, in part because its industrial north is so closely economically tied to Germany.

“For most countries, Germany is the most important trading partner”, said Carsten Brzeski, Chief Economist at ING Germany. “If it starts to slow down, other countries will feel it.”

Olaf Wortmann, economist for the Mechanical Engineering Industry Association in Frankfurt, grimly noted that while some lost sales may be recouped later, it is no guarantee. “The political turmoil created uncertainty, and uncertainty is poison for investment”, he said. “The longer this virus spreads its misery, the harder it will be to catch up later.”

The International Monetary Fund forecast Italy’s growth at 0.5 percent for 2020 and said its economy would be the weakest in the European Union over the next few years. But the Italian government had expected the economy to quickly rebound in the first quarter and meet their modest growth target of 0.6 percent – that is, until the coronavirus arrived. Despite rising exports and tourism, the virus may cause Italy’s fourth recession in twelve years.

“There is a clear risk that [the Italian economy] falls back into recession for the fourth time since 2008”, said Jack Allen-Reynolds, senior European economist at Capital Economics.

“Whatever growth [Italy] has experienced in recent years has been closely correlated to how the global economy has fared”, said Silvia Dall’Angelo, Senior Economist at Hermes Investment. “At the same time domestic demand has been sluggish, implying that Italian growth has been particularly vulnerable to external shocks.”

The European Central Bank may decide to call for more spending from countries like Germany, who have more fiscal flexibility, or Spain, with its economy currently outperforming expectations, in order to temper fluctuating markets.

“The coronavirus might be slowing in mainland China, but the huge jump over the weekend to various other countries has many reassessing 2020 growth estimates”, said Ryan Detrick, Senior Market Strategist for LPL Financial, a money management firm, in an email to the New York Times. Detrick added: “We could see quickly decreasing earnings and growth outlooks.”

Compounding matters, the World Health Organization has warned that the world remains unprepared for a major, pandemic-like outbreak. While China’s extreme lockdown of over half its population has likely saved hundreds of thousands from infection, these types of restrictions are difficult to replicate in democratic countries, where freedom of movement is a protected right. While the number of new cases in China seems to have declined, they are rising elsewhere – bad news for those who seek to contain the virus’ spread. In Italy, more than 150 cases have been logged and authorities have locked down ten towns, shut down schools, and cancelled Carnival in response. But even these measures may not be enough.

“There’s no question that China’s bold approach to the rapid spread of this new respiratory pathogen has changed the course of what was a rapidly escalating and continues to be a deadly epidemic”, said Bruce Aylward, a Canadian doctor and epidemiologist. “We have all got to look at our systems because none of them work fast enough”, he added.

“The containment definitely worked in China”, said Leo Poon, the head of the public health laboratory sciences division at the University of Hong Kong. “The question now is whether similar policies can be applied in other countries.”

The coronavirus has made investors understandably jumpy. China is a major consumer market, and also a massive international supplier of both raw and intermediate materials upon which the rest of the global supply chain depends. When the virus was mostly contained, there was cautious optimism that the global market could weather the storm. With outbreaks now spreading outside of Asia, investors are no longer so optimistic, and markets are predicting a world-wide drag on growth – at least until the virus is controlled.

As a result, crude oil prices have dropped, shipping has reduced, airline and technology stocks have taken a major hit, and gold – a safe investment choice during financial unrest – has risen to a seven-year high. Meanwhile the coronavirus has caused tourism to slump worldwide, especially as many European countries – Italy included – have greatly benefitted from continuous Chinese tourism that has recently ground to a halt.

For now, it seems the only certainty remaining is the uncertainty of the markets.

The post Will Trade Wins Keep Europe Strong During Coronavirus? appeared first on South EU Summit.

This percentage is misleading, however. When comparing the ratio of graduates to the population of the student body, Greece currently ranks last within Europe. And in ADIP’s report, graduation rates stood at 9.41 – a good 14.74 points below the EU average – suggesting that university attendees are either ceasing to attend classes or dropping out altogether.

The Eternal Student and University Reforms

Those in the Greek educational system often refer to the concept of the “eternal” student – a unique idea that doesn’t apply to other European countries, though many member states also offer low-cost universities.

But in a speech made to parliament last year, Education Minister Niki Kerameus announced that the country must stop allowing students to remain enrolled indefinitely and advised setting a limit on the amount of time a student could stay in the system. One senior ministry official said, “The decision was taken in the context of trying to cut back on waste. Above all, our intention is to have a clear, disciplined framework for the completion of studies.”

In December 2019, Kerameus began overhauling the system and created a National Authority for Higher Education, which looks at how universities perform and then promises to deal with those faculties accordingly. The plan also sets aside 20 percent of the country’s budget for universities, but this money will only be given if the administration follows certain criteria in a process the ministry calls “performance-based funding”. Kerameus has said that “the country is turning a page in education and that the reform plan will consider “transparency, objectiveness, meritocracy and the decentralisation of power”.

In a report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), statistics indicated that the money spent per student in Greece is, on average, lower than in the rest of the European Union. The numbers also show that while professors are working more hours, they’re being paid less. If universities are able to “cut waste” by eliminating the eternal students, Kerameus believes there would be a greater budget to assist those who attend consistently and plan to graduate.

Reform in the university system is a battle that Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his New Democracy-led government have been fighting for years. When Syriza was in power under former Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, the party refused to consider amendments to Article 16 of the constitution, which bans the establishment of private non-profit universities in Greece (this is the only country in the European Union that has this policy). Instead, the previous government’s stance was that students should not face pressure to complete their studies – a mentality that would not be feasible in a private university system.

Despite constitutional restrictions, Greece has a large number of privately-run institutions offering undergraduate and graduate degrees, yet these colleges, for the most part, are run as faculties or franchises of foreign universities.

In early 2019, before becoming prime minister in Greece’s snap elections, Mitsotakis brought up the need to reform Article 16 during a debate over constitutional revisions. He noted that his party was looking to address the country’s needs within a contemporary context and explained that “Our central proposal is the revision of Article 16 that has, unfortunately, held our country back for 44 years. The state must guarantee good quality public higher education, providing opportunities for everyone.” Mitsotakis believes this concept goes hand-in-hand with creating opportunities for private, non-profit educational institutions to establish themselves in Greece.

Many professors stand behind this amendment. In an open letter to Syriza and Tsipras in December 2018, educators requested changes to Article 16 following Syriza’s rejection of reforms: “Greece is unique in this: It is the only country in Europe, if not the entire world, where the average lawmaker does not have the freedom to regulate the status of universities in accordance with the educational, social and cultural needs of the time, as well as the priorities of the majority of the time. On the contrary, they are strictly limited by the constitution.”

Greece is not the only country facing a need to reform an outdated university system.

In Italy, former Education Minister Lorenzo Fioramonti decided to step down when the government passed a 2020 budget that excluded increased education spending. His ministry was split into two parts with two new ministers, which one critic has said “was a choice dictated by the exigencies of political balance rather than by a logic of rationalisation” because the two ministers “satisfy the two major political forces in government”.

And while Spain has seen some increased spending for their higher education, the country has struggled with the need to reform policies, including red tape on international instructor recruitment. Both Italy and Spain have newly elected ministers, and whether their governments will be successful in implementing major and necessary changes remains to be seen.

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The first thing Portugal plans to tweak is their Golden Visa programme, first introduced in 2012 to foreign investors willing to spend 500,000 euros or more on property in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis. At the time, Lisbon’s housing market was in a shambles and decrepit buildings prevailed. But since the programme’s introduction, over 4.8 billion euros have been generated in real estate, cementing the country’s status as the second-hottest property market in western Europe. Most investment has come from China, with Brazil at a distant second. Seeking to dodge their own high tax burdens, French buyers are healthily represented as well, along with Turkey, Russia, and South Africa. With such seemingly positive results, it might seem odd that Portugal would want to scale golden visas back.

However, Prime Minister Antonio Costa and his ruling Socialist party intend to do just that, mostly targeting the now robust property markets of Lisbon and Porto in order to drive investment to regions with lower population density instead. In this way, Costa hopes to reduce the speculation in Portugal’s two largest real estate markets that have made it hard for the middle class to find affordable housing in the country’s largest cities.

Isabel Sa da Bandeira, who heads a Lisbon-based organisation called People Live Here, believes that golden visa incentives have done more to harm Lisbon and Porto than help, as they have created “huge injustices” in the housing market. “Many locals have left the city because they can’t afford to rent or buy property”, she said.

The Prime Minister agrees. Golden visas “should contribute to the recovery of the property market where it’s necessary or in areas of low population density”, Costa said in a speech. “Fortunately, it’s no longer necessary in the big urban centres”.

Others aren’t so sure. Many real estate brokers are concerned that curbing the scheme may cause investors to turn away from Portugal altogether and instead seek property in European countries that offer similar programmes, such as Cyprus, Greece, or Spain. “You can’t change the rules in the middle of the game, especially when Lisbon and Oporto account for more than half of all property purchases by golden visa investors”, said Luis Lima, head of Portugal’s Real Estate Professionals and Brokers Association. “It’s counterproductive”.

Getting foreign nationals interested in other regions of Portugal is its own challenge as well. “If this was a Portuguese national investing in China or Brazil, he would be unlikely to invest in a region that he did not know, preferring principal cities with recognised prospects of economic return and low on risk”, said Hugo Santos Ferreira, Vice President of the Association of Property Developers and Investors (APPII).

Costa has countered that “Those who now want to obtain a golden visa are also welcome, as long as their investment is made where it’s necessary”.

Meanwhile, concern remains over a lack of proper vetting of those who apply for the golden visas in the first place. Civic association of Transparency and Integrity (TI) spokesman Paulo Batalha has said that too often, visas are being awarded to individuals from states widely known for corruption and money laundering, without proper controls in place. “Portugal is being seen as the kind of rubbish bin for golden visas because it has been so relaxed in their attribution”, he told reporters.

Last year, a special European Parliamentary Committee, whose vice-chair at the time was Portugal’s former Socialist MEP Ana Gomes, called for an end to the regime “as soon as possible”. Gomes has long insisted that the programme is a form of “prostitution of the Schengen system” that has given “kleptocrats, criminals and money launderers” a fast track into Europe. It is unclear how the new changes to the visa regime will address these issues.

Parliament ruled on the 2020 budget on February 6^th, including putting the new visa regime into place, and targets the country’s first budget surplus in 40 years. The economy is set to expand for the seventh year running, and property prices increased 10.3 percent in the third quarter of 2019 from a year before, which is the second-biggest gain in western Europe, after Luxembourg. However, the budget has yet to be officially declared by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, without which the law cannot take effect, which in turn indicates room for a lot of lobbying going on behind the scenes.

Though the new changes won’t kick in for another year, TSF radio has reported that spooked investors – including some Chinese and Brazilian nationals – have already begun cancelling property deals in Lisbon and Porto and pulling out of the country. But the Portuguese government is attempting to restore calm to the property market and ease the cancellation of ongoing deals, and noted that rule changes will not affect any existing visa holders. Secretary of State for the Presidency of the Council of Ministers Tiago Antunes told TSF radio that “We need to spread it and explain to the market that there isn’t any kind of disturbance that justifies the cancelling of any ongoing business. There is an adjustment period which will last until the end of the year when the new rules will be applied”, Antunes said.

Meanwhile Portugal’s low tax rates, first introduced along with the golden visa programme almost a decade ago, in a bid to attract wealthy foreigners to move in, are also under fire. Now the Socialist government wants some foreign residents to start paying taxes on their pensions, and not everyone is keen on this change, with Finland and Sweden criticising Portugal for having an unfair tax system. If approved, foreign residents who apply for the so-called non-habitual resident programme will have to pay a flat 10 percent levy on their pensions. However, some foreign workers continue to be allowed to pay a flat 20 percent income tax rate.

Tiago Caiado Guerreiro, a Lisbon-based lawyer who specialises in tax legislation, said this is a smart move to silence critics from all sides. “A 10 percent tax rate on pensions is still very low and remains very attractive for foreigners”, he said.

Not Taking Your Rubbish

Portugal isn’t just tackling foreign investors, but also foreign waste.

For years, the country has accepted rubbish from all over Europe into their own landfills. In 2018 alone, over 330,000 tons of “amber list” waste was dumped in Portugal from aboard, a 53 percent increase from the year before. From that garbage, approximately 110,000 tons ended up in 11 landfills, while the rest was processed for reuse. Amber list discard includes waste that contains hazardous substances and requires prior approval, but some of what was treated wasn’t legal for Portugal to receive.

The rate of waste imports has risen over the past two years – an effect caused by China’s strict and newly introduced limits on the amount of foreign rubbish it would import. Meanwhile Portugal has very low waste processing fees – only 9.90 euros per ton in 2019 and 11 euros in 2020, compared to the European average of 80 to 100 euros per ton. Charging a low price and processing in bulk meant Portugal could get rich off dispensing Europe’s waste.

However, residents have tired of the stinky problem and demanded that the government find a solution. “It’s impossible to live here now”, said a 69-year old woman who lives near one of the dumps close to the northern village of Sobrado. “When it smells, I’m forced to shut doors because if I don’t, it’s impossible to sleep at night”, she said.

“The country has to think whether it wants this type of business, whether it wants to be seen as Europe’s rubbish dump”, Jose Ribeiro, Mayor of Valongo – where Sobrado is located – told Reuters. Some locals worry that the landfill could cause a spike in insects, rodents, and seagulls, and could be a vector for disease. Last year, residents launched an environmental group “Jornada Principal”, which organises protests and petitions about the issue. They plan to file a lawsuit against Portugal’s environment ministry.

In addition, the European Union has challenged all member states to reduce landfilling operations by 2035 to 10 percent of where they are now, as part of larger efforts to tackle climate change and reduce emissions. Responding to pressure both at home and abroad, the Portuguese government has turned over a new leaf and made it harder to accept waste shipments.

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